The greatest cost of depopulation is not economic. It is civilizational.
By Bobby Jindal & Alex Castellanos
Good news, everyone. We may not need children after all.
That’s the comforting conclusion one could draw from a growing body of economic research on declining birthrates. Yes, fertility is falling. Yes, populations are aging. Yes, workforces are shrinking. But don’t worry. Artificial intelligence, robotics, and automation will make each remaining worker so much more productive that the economy will keep humming along just fine.
In fact, a recent paper by Nobel laureate Daron Acemoglu and his colleagues concludes that shrinking populations have historically increased output per worker enough to offset the economic drag of having fewer workers. Productivity rises. GDP survives. Crisis averted.
It’s an important finding. It may even be right. But it answers only the smallest of the questions before us.
Economists have asked whether we can continue producing enough with fewer people. They should also ask what happens when there are fewer people to buy, build, dream, invent, marry, raise families, volunteer in churches, coach Little League, start companies, and imagine tomorrow.
They may have solved the supply equation. The harder question is whether they’ve forgotten the demand side. And the human side.